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:: IWM BATTLES SUPPORT -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR STAKES OUT SUPPORT -- RSI HITS SUPPORT ZONE FOR GOLD ETF -- WEAKNESS IN THE EURO WEIGHS ON EURO SHARES -- GERMAN AND FRENCH STOCKS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN 2011 -- PORTUGUESE STOCKS AND SPANISH STOCKS ::

 
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MessagePosté le: Lun 10 Jan - 22:14 (2011)    Sujet du message: IWM BATTLES SUPPORT -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR STAKES OUT SUPPORT -- RSI HITS SUPPORT ZONE FOR GOLD ETF -- WEAKNESS IN THE EURO WEIGHS ON EURO SHARES -- GERMAN AND FRENCH STOCKS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN 2011 -- PORTUGUESE STOCKS AND SPANISH STOCKS Répondre en citant

IWM BATTLES SUPPORT -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR STAKES OUT SUPPORT -- RSI HITS SUPPORT ZONE FOR GOLD ETF -- WEAKNESS IN THE EURO WEIGHS ON EURO SHARES -- GERMAN AND FRENCH STOCKS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN 2011 -- PORTUGUESE STOCKS AND SPANISH STOCKS GET HIT HARD
By Arthur Hill
IWM BATTLES SHORT-TERM SUPPORT AS IT UNDERPERFORMS... Link for today’s video. Trading remains relatively subdued as the major indices either grind higher or trade sideways. Chart 1 shows the small-cap dominated Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) testing short-term support at 78. The ETF is up over 30% since late August and up over 10% since mid November. This makes the ETF overbought by most yardsticks, but there are simply no signs of material selling pressure. IWM formed three black candlesticks last week, indicating that the daily close was below the open. Despite moving lower after the open three days last week, support at 78 continues to hold. This support level stems from broken resistance and the late August trendline. A close below 78 would be short-term bearish and argue for a correction within the bigger uptrend. It is also possible that we are witnessing a “stealth” correction. Securities can work off overbought conditions with a pullback or a trading range. IWM has been flat for three weeks now, which amounts to a consolidation. Technically, a break above 80 would end the consolidation and call for a continuation of the uptrend.


(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 1

The indicator window shows the IWM:SPY ratio. This Price Relative shows the performance of IWM relative to SPY by rising when IWM outperforms and falling when IWM underperforms. Overall, IWM has been outperforming since late August. There was a brief pullback in the second half of October. The Price Relative is currently in a three week pullback as IWM has lagged SPY since December 21st. Such short-term relative weakness in small-caps is a minor negative so far.
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR STAKES OUT SUPPORT... The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) was a big part of the broad market advance from September to early December. Buying pressure has diminished as the ETF grinds its way higher over the last four weeks. Chart 2 shows a consolidation taking shape as buying pressure and selling pressure even out. Notice how the ETF moved above 37 in early December and then traded on either side of 37.5 the last four weeks. We have yet to see an increase in selling pressure because support is clearly holding. A move below the early December lows would break support and show the first sign of significant selling pressure since mid November. At this point, the bulls still have the edge because the uptrend has yet to be reversed or proven otherwise. The indicator window shows the Price Relative peaking in late November and moving lower the last four weeks. XLY is underperforming the broader market (SPY). This is a short-term negative that would be compounded if the ETF breaks support. Chartist now have two levels in two key ETFs to watch this week: IWM support at 78 and XLY support at 37. The bulls are in good shape as long as these two hold support.


(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 2

RSI HITS SUPPORT ZONE FOR GOLD ETF... The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the Silver Trust (SLV) were hit hard last week, but the bigger uptrends remain in force and the first support test is at hand. Chart 3 shows GLD failing to hold above 138 three times in the last three months. The ETF declined sharply last week, but firmed at support from the December low over the last four days. In fact, the 30-minute chart shows a flat consolidation over the last four days. Traders can watch these boundaries for a short-term breakout signal. A move above the four day high would affirm support, while a break below the four day low would signal a continuation of last week’s decline. RSI is also in a support zone as it flattens in the 40-50 zone. This zone held in mid November and mid December. Chart 4 shows SLV stalling just above support from the December lows. RSI is also trading in the 40-50 zone.


(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 3

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 4

WEAKNESS IN THE EURO WEIGHS ON EURO SHARES... Weakness in the Euro is weighing on European equities in 2011. Even though the Euro finished 2010 with a bounce the final week, it started 2011 with a 3.43% decline last week. Euro weakness can be blamed, in part, on European debt concerns as Italy, Portugal and Spain tap the bond market later this week. In total, these three countries will be raising some $43 billion through bond auctions. Investors will be watching to see how the market receives these bonds and the interest rate demanded. Chart 5 shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) hitting resistance at 134 throughout December and then breaking its November-December lows. This break signals a continuation of the November decline. With three reaction highs, resistance is clear at 134 and a break above this level is needed to reverse the downtrend in the Euro.


(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 5

GERMAN AND FRENCH STOCKS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN 2011... German stocks were very strong in the second half of 2010, but came under selling pressure in 2011. Chart 6 shows the DJ Germany Index ($DEDOW) breaking resistance in October and hitting a new 52-week high in late December. While US stocks continued higher the last week of December and the first week of January, German stocks peaked and showed relative weakness. In fact, German stocks have been underperforming US stocks since late November. The indicator window shows the Price Relative moving lower throughout December and now in early January. German stocks are also ripe for a correction and a move back to broken resistance is possible. Chart 7 shows the DJ France Index ($FRDOW) hitting resistance from the November high and declining sharply over the last two days. French stocks have been underperforming since September.


(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 6

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 7

PORTUGUESE STOCKS AND SPANISH STOCKS GET HIT HARD... The main concern with Europe is on the periphery. Germany, France and Holland make up the main core. Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Ireland form the periphery. Greece and Ireland have already had their issues. Focus is now turning to Portugal and its bigger neighbor, Spain. Chart 8 shows the DJ Portugal Index ($PTDOW) falling over 20% from its December high. The index broke support with a sharp decline the last four days. Judging from the price action, there appears to be some serious concern with Portugal right now. Chart 9 shows the DJ Spain Index ($ESDOW) tumbling over 7% from its December high. The December highs mark key resistance and a break above these highs is needed to reverse the downtrend in Spanish equities. Chart 10 shows the DJ Italy Index ($ITDOW) falling over 2% today.


(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 8

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 9

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 10
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MessagePosté le: Lun 10 Jan - 22:14 (2011)    Sujet du message: Publicité

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