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MessagePosté le: Lun 3 Jan - 18:26 (2011)    Sujet du message: quelques graphiques et analyses de marché Répondre en citant

Mon, Jan 3 2011 12:13 PM ET Previous Market Message Next Market Message
QQQQ AND IWM BREAK DECEMBER CONSOLIDATIONS -- HANG SENG BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE -- SENTIMENT INDICATORS SHOWING EXCESSIVE BULLISHNESS -- PUT/CALL RATIO BOUNCES FROM BULLISH EXTREME -- VOLATILITY INDICES STILL TRENDING LOWER
By Arthur Hill
QQQQ AND IWM BREAK DECEMBER CONSOLIDATIONS... Link for today’s video. After consolidating the last two weeks of the year, the major index ETFs started 2011 with a jump above their 2010 highs. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) breaking above 78 in mid December and then consolidating around 79 the prior two weeks. With today’s move above 79.5, the ETF broke above the consolidation highs to resume the uptrend. Broken support around 78 now turns into the first support level to watch. I would not call this a major support level. Instead, it looks like a minor support level that represents the short-term trend. A break below 78 would be short-term bearish and signal the start of a pullback or consolidation within the bigger uptrend. Chart 2 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) breaking resistance at 54 and holding this breakout. The ETF surged above its December highs with a break above 55 today. This consolidation breakout also signals a resumption of the uptrend and reinforces short-term support at 54.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 1

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 2

HANG SENG BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE... Today’s rally started in Asia, migrated to Europe and continued in the US. Some exchanges are closed today in observance of New Year’s day. The Australian, Shanghai and Toronto exchanges are closed today. Hong Kong, however, is open. Chart 3 shows the Hang Seng Index ($HSI) with a pattern similar to that seen in the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC). The index declined with a falling wedge that retraced 50-62% of the prior advance. Both the pattern and the retracement amount are typical for corrections within bigger uptrends. The index broke above the upper trendline with a bounce last week. Today’s surge to 23,464 carried it above the late December high. This is an end-of-day (EOD) chart so it will not be updated until after the close. The black line marks the approximate close for today.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 3

SENTIMENT INDICATORS SHOWING EXCESSIVE BULLISHNESS... Even though the major equity indices remain in clear uptrends, some sentiment indicators recently reached levels that suggest excessive bullishness and this warrants some caution going forward. Before covering sentiment, it is important to remember that sentiment indicators can reach extremes and remain near extremes in a strong trend. Momentum oscillators can also behave this way. For example, a momentum oscillator can move to overbought levels and remain overbought during a strong uptrend. Similarly, sentiment indicators can show excessive bullishness, but remain near extremes during a strong uptrend. Sentiment indicators are contrarian in nature. They are bearish when sentiment gets too bullish or bullish when sentiment gets too bearish. This contrarian rationale is based on the assumption that nobody is left to buy (sell) when everybody is bullish (bearish). The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) publishes a weekly sentiment survey on its website (aaii.com). For the week ending 22-December, a whopping 63.3% of respondents were bullish and only 16.5% were bearish (+46.8 net bullish). The results from 29-December came in at 51.6% bullish and 20.1% bearish (+31.5 net bullish). The combination of high bullish readings and low bearish readings indicates excessively bullish sentiment that can foreshadow an interim peak.

Chart 4

PUT/CALL RATIO BOUNCES FROM BULLISH EXTREME... At StockCharts.com, chartists can track the various put-call ratios and the volatility indices to gauge sentiment. Enter “put/call” in the symbol search to see the indicators available. In general, equity options are associated with individual investors, traders and speculators. Index options are associated with professionals and hedgers. Rather than differentiate, I like to use the CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio ($CPC), which combines equity and index option volume. The Put/Call Ratio is above 1 when put volume outpaces call volume and below 1 when call volume outpaces put volume. Call options are designed to make money when the market moves higher. Put options are designed to make money when the market moves lower. Relatively high call volume indicates a bullish bias in the options market. Relatively high put volume indicates a bearish bias in the options market.

Chart 5 shows the 5-day EMA for the CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio ($CPC). I applied this exponential moving average to smooth the daily fluctuations. A dip below .75 shows excessive call volume or bullishness. The red dotted lines show the 5-day EMÅ moving back above .75 and the red arrows show these crosses relative to the S&P 500. There was a double dip in December-2009 and January-2010. Put another way, the December 2009 indication was early. The indicator predicted the April 2010 peak in the S&P 500. The 5-day EMA showed excessive bullishness near the November 2010 peak, but this peak was quite minor. Most recently, the indicator showed excessive bullishness in mid December. However, the S&P 500 simply continued higher the last two weeks. While there may be another double dip like last year, the indicator is currently in neutral territory because it moved back above .75 in the second half of December. A second dip below .75 would indicate excessive bullishness that would warrant caution.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 5

Charts 6 and 7 shows the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio ($CPCE) and the CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio ($CPCI) for reference. Notice how the equity only put/call ratio was below 1 the entire year (2010), but the index only put/call ratio was above 1. Call volume is much stronger with equity options. Put volume is much stronger with index options.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 6

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 7

VOLATILITY INDICES STILL TRENDING LOWER... The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) are also comes from the options market. Instead of put-call volume, these indicators measure the implied volatility for a basket of put and call options relative to the specific index. Enter “volatility” in the symbol search to see the volatility indices available at StockCharts.com. Relatively low volatility is considered a sign of complacency that can be considered excessive bullishness. Relatively high volatility is considered a sign of fear that can be considered excessive bearishness. As with the put/call ratios, these volatility indices can move to an extreme and remain at an extreme during strong trends.

The volatility indices also trend in the opposite direction of the underlying index. Therefore, chartists should watch the absolute level as well as the overall trend. While low volatility can be a sign of complacency, a downtrend in volatility usually coincides with an uptrend in stocks. Chart 8 shows the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) with support (green) and resistance (red) lines. Resistance breaks signal an uptrend in volatility, which is bearish for stocks. Support breaks signal a downtrend in volatility, which is bullish for stocks. $VIX broke support at the end of July to start a downtrend that was bullish for stocks. Even though the indicator is trading near long-term support, it remains in a downtrend and still bullish for stocks. A break above the November high would reverse this downtrend and be bearish for stocks. Chart 9 shows the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) for reference.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 8

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 9
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